University of Kiel, Ecology Centre, Msc Environmental Science, a seminar paper 
Status: completed (2010)

Millennium Assessment:
Case Study Caribbean Sea Ecosystem Assessment (CARSEA)

Annisa Indah Sari and Lina Kliucininkaite
asari@ecology.uni-kiel.de and lina.natali@gmail.com

Abstract

Caribbean Sea is a semi-enclose marine ecosystem, which comprises coastal areas of 22 independent countries and 17 territories with 116 million people living within 100 km of the sea. The aim of the CARSEA project is to assess ecosystem that focused on two services: fishery and tourism. The methodology was adapted from Millennium Assessment (MA) strategy, that contains three steps; conditions and trends, scenario, and responses. Conditions and trends: (1) fishery as provisioning service has developed unsustainable fishing patterns, indicates by increasing fish catches that resulted in overfishing and declining mean trophic level, (2) the decreasing of coral reef biodiversity and mangrove as supporting service, indicates by losing of 80% of living coral over last 20 years and decreasing mangrove areas about 1% yearˉ¹, (3) the economy, is highly depending on tourism as cultural service, indicates by contributing 13% to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employing 2.4 million people (15.5%) in tourism. The key factor leading that affect ecosystem services are: (1) urbanization of coastal communities and increasing in number of tourism have led sewage pollution and land-sea use change, in turn, stimulate growth of algae, fish kills and damage the sea grass beds, mangroves and coral reefs, (2) uncoordinated management plans and lack information of fish stock have led overfishing.

CARSEA developed four scenarios to present plausible future of the Caribbean region and to help policy-makers and stakeholders assess the likely consequences for the environment and its. Scenarios are: The Neo-plantation Economy, Growing Asymmetries, Quality over Quantity, Diversify Together, which have links to Global Scenarios presented by Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. They are intended to give an overview and illustrate possible futures for the Caribbean region up to 2050. Despite many programs, projects and policies being implemented and settles in the region, CARSEA team has found little evidence of action by local or national government, local authorities and other organizations in the region to implement the integrated management of the Sea in the term of „special zone“. As one possible solution and way for better cooperation in the region, CARSEA proposed to establish a Caribbean Sea Technical Commission or council. It would be responsible for the entire region and would help to achieve coherence within the policy-making bodies of the Wider Caribbean.

This paper together with other sources gives overview and summary to the CARSEA case study and paper, developed by Caribbean Sea Ecosystem Assessment Team, Agard, J.B., and Cropper, A. (coord.), published in 2007.

Key words: Caribbean Sea, Ecosystem Assessment, Ecosystem Services, Fishery and Tourism, Global Scenarios, Scenario of Neo-plantation Economy, Scenario of Growing Asymmetries, Scenario of Quality over Quantity, Scenario of Diversity Together, Caribbean Sea Technical Commission.

Content

1. Background
2. General Overview of Caribbean Sea
3. Scope of Study Area
4. The Framework and Methodology of CARSEA
5. Condition and Trends of Ecosystem Services in Caribbean Sea

   a.  Fishery as provisioning service has developed unsustainable fishing patterns

   b.  The biodiversity of coral reef as supporting services is greatly degraded

   c.  The biodiversity of mangrove ecosystems as Supporting Services has decreased

   d.  Amenity value in tourism as Cultural Services

6. Drivers of Ecosystem Change in Caribbean Sea
7. Scenarios
8. Links of CARSEA scenarios to MA Global Scenarios
9. Uncertainties with focal questions of CARSEA scenarios
10. Major Findings in case study of CARSEA
11. Response to settled programs in the region
12. Proposals
13. References
14. Useful links

 

1. Background

Human depends on the need of food, water, clean air, shelter and relative climatic constancy. Ecosystems play an important rule as life-support systems for all those needs for all other forms of life. Meanwhile, the earth’s ecosystem has been rapidly changed du to human activities over the past 50 years (MA, 2005), which also have affected human well-being. Therefore, in 2000 the United Nations’ Secretary General Kofi Annan initiated to assess the consequences of ecosystem changed for human well-being. The respective initiative was called the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). The Caribbean Sea Ecosystem Assessment (CARSEA) is one of 33 sub-global assessment approval projects of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. It was led by The University of the West Indies (UWI) and The Cropper Foundation (TCF), and was carried out by 60 experts.

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2. General Overview of Caribbean Sea

The Caribbean Sea is the semi-enclosed Marine ecosystem. Semi-enclosed marine means gulf, basin or sea surrounded by two or more States and connected to another sea or ocean by a narrow outlet or consisting entirely or primarily of the territorial seas and exclusive economic zones of the two or more coastal States (Vidas et al., 2000). The economic development of this area is depending on tourism and fishery, which is requiring healthy ecosystems. On the other hand, the Caribbean Sea experiences drastic ecosystem degradations. This development is a major threat, because the Caribbean environment is responsible for the livelihoods of more than 116 million people. The area has the largest number of Small Island Developing States, the highest number of maritime boundaries in the world and the most geopolitical components which involve 22 independent countries and 17 territories (see Fig. 1). Those conditions have made Caribbean Sea difficult to manage through overlay policies and uncoordinated management plan. The strategic position makes Caribbean Sea one of the busiest shipping regions, which caused pressures to marine ecosystem. All of those reasons create an urgent need to assess the ecosystem in Caribbean Sea.

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3. Scope of Study Area

The project focuses on the area called as CLME (Caribbean Large Marine Ecosystem) and the countries and territories bordering this marine expanse.

Figure 1. The Caribbean Large Marine Ecosystem (yellow line) with hypothetical Exclusive Economic zone (broken line) boundaries. Source: The Nature Conservancy (TNC; pers. commun. 2005). List of Countries and Territories bordering the Caribbean Sea: Anguilla (U.K), Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba (NL), Bahamas, Barbados, Belize*, British Virgin Islands (U.K), Cayman Islands (U.K), Colombia*, Costa Rica*, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guadeloupe (France), Guatemala*, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Montserrat (U.K), Martinique (France)5, Panama, Puerto Rico (U.S.A), Mexico*, Netherland Antilles (Neth.):(Curacao, Bonaire, St. Maarten, St. Eustatius, Saba), Nicaragua*, St. Barthelemy (France) †, St. Kitts/Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Martin (France), St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos (U.K), U.S. Virgin Islands (U.S.A), Venezuela* NOTE: Overseas/dependent territories are shown in italics, with their metropolitan countries in parentheses. *Continental states bordering the Caribbean Sea. † Recognized as a territory of France on February 22, 2007. Source: CARSEA, 2007

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4. The Framework and Methodology of CARSEA

The framework of this project has been adapted from the MA strategy, where human well-being includes basic material for a good life, secure and adequate livelihoods, enough food, adequate shelter, clothing, and access to goods; health, including feeling well and having a healthy physical environment, such as clean air and access to clean water; good social relations, including social cohesion, mutual respect, and the ability to help others; security, including secure access to natural and other resources, personal safety, and security from natural and human-made disasters; and freedom of choice and action, including the opportunity to achieve what an individual values doing and being (see Fig. 2). The methodology of the assessment was conducted in three steps;

1. Condition and Trends, including fish production, biodiversity; coral reef and mangrove cove, amenity value in tourism.
2.  Scenarios; the CARSEA team has developed four scenarios illustrating possible futures for the Caribbean region up to 2050.
3.  Responses could be legal responses, economic and financial responses, social, cultural and cognitive responses and technological interventions.

Figure 2. The Framework of CARSEA. Source: MA, 2005.

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5. Condition and Trends of Ecosystem Services in Caribbean Sea

a. Fishery as provisioning service has developed unsustainable fishing patterns

1^st Indicator: Fish catches in the Caribbean generally increased from 84,411 ton in 1950 to 482,848 ton in 1998, before declining to 401,561 ton by 2004 (see Fig. 3). These activities result in overfishing and marine habitat degradation.

Figure 3. Fish Catches in Caribbean Sea (1950-2000). Source: University of British Columbia (UBC) Fisheries Centre. Sea Around Us Project, 2006.

Figure 4. Mean Trophic Level in Caribbean Sea (1950-2000). Source: University of British Columbia (UBC) Fisheries Centre. Sea Around Us Project, 2006.

2^nd Indicator: Declining in mean trophic level of fish in the catch from about 3.64 in 1950 to about 3.4 by 2004 (see Fig. 4). This phenomenon is known as “fishing down the food web”.

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b. The biodiversity of coral reef as supporting services is greatly degraded

Figure 5. Coral reef cover in Caribbean Sea (1977-2002). Source: Gardner et al., Science 301.

3^rd Indicator: Loss of about 80% of living coral cover over the last 20 years (Gardener et al. 2003). This decline has been caused by hurricane damages, disease, bleaching, pollution, and sediment runoff from coastal developments and agriculture, overfishing, and has been amplified by direct damages from boat anchors, fish traps, grounded ships, dredging, collection, and dynamite fishing. The potential yields for fisheries from coral reefs amount to 10 t kmˉ²/year, which could provide up to 6% of global fisheries if properly managed (Burke and Maidens, 2004). Coral reefs provide calm water, blue-green coloring, protection against beach erosion, and white sand, which is valuable for the tourism industry.

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c. The biodiversity of mangrove ecosystems as Supporting Services has decreased

The analyses by the FAO indicate that the mangrove area around the Caribbean Sea has in general decreased by about 1% per year since 1980 (FAO 2002, 2003a). Mangrove provides the services of protection of coral reefs, sea grass beds, and the provision of habitat, spawning grounds, and nutrients for a variety of fish and shellfish, including many commercial species. Mangroves can provide income as eco-tourist attractions for viewing birds, manatees, crocodiles, and other fauna and flora. High population pressures in coastal areas have led to the conversion of many mangrove areas to other uses, including infrastructure, aquaculture, rice, and salt production.

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d. Amenity value in tourism as Cultural Services

The economy around the Caribbean Sea is highly depending on the tourism sector

4^th Indicator: In 2004, more than 2.4 million people were employed either directly or indirectly in travel and tourism, accounting for 15.5% of total employment, a proportion nearly twice as high as the global average. The sector contributed U.S. $28.4 billion to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 13% of the total, and U.S. $19 billion or 16% of exported services and merchandise (see Table 1).

Table 1. Contribution of Tourism to Economy relative to the global average in 2004.

Tourism-related activities	Number/U.S.$ value for insular Caribbean	Percentage of total insular Caribbean	Global Average (%)
Jobs (direct and indirect)	2,416,500	15.5	8
Contribution to GDP	28.4 billion	13.0	10
Exported services and merchandise	19.0 billion	16.1	9
Capital investment	7.4 billion	21.7	9

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6. Drivers of Ecosystem Change in Caribbean Sea

Before developing scenarios, analyzing the drivers change is needed to have better holistic understanding of the cause and the effect in particular area. A driver is defined here as any natural or human-induces factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in the state or condition of an ecosystem, and its ability to provide ecosystem services (MA, 2003). The change of drivers is the key factor leading to changes that affect ecosystem services; these could be local and external. The CARSEA has identified the drivers affecting ecosystem in Caribbean Sea, see Table. 2.

Table 2. Local and External Drivers of Ecosystem Change in Caribbean Sea.

	Drivers of Change
	Indirect Drivers	Direct Drivers
Local	Urbanization of coastal communities. Urbanization has been the major factor underlying the direct pressures on the Caribbean Sea ecosystem. One hundred per cent of people on the islands and 61-100% in Central America live within 100 km of the coast.	Changes in coastal land and sea use. Flat land along the coastline and reclaimed from the Sea has been used for industry and commerce, and in a wide range of tourism developments such as hotels, apartments, and golf courses. The consequence has been severe depletion of habitats such as sea grass beds and mangroves, damage to coral reefs, and the destabilization of beaches.
	High tourism dependency has led to a massive amount of capital investment in coastal infrastructure, which has, in turn, damaged the capacity of the ecosystem to provide services to the region.	Sewage pollution from land sources and cruise ships has been the most pervasive form of contamination of the coastal environment. Apart from affecting bathing beaches and thereby the tourism potential for particular areas, the elevated nutrient levels from such pollution can over stimulate the growth of algae, causing fish kills and coral damage.
	Lack of coordinated governance. There is a competitive rather than cooperative approach to issues such as fish stocks and tourism management.	Overfishing through the increasingly widespread use of certain types of gear is putting unprecedented strain on the fish stocks of the Caribbean.
External	International shipping rules are exposing the ecosystems to extra pressures of pollution, overfishing, and even the risk of radioactive contamination from shipments of nuclear material.	Global climate change. Rising sea temperatures have increased the incidence of coral “bleaching”. It also caused sea level rise that may flood low-lying areas; ports, beaches, and swamps. Changing in wind and precipitation events are influence erosion, the sedimentation of the coastal areas and the rate and magnitude of nutrient loading into near-shore zones.
		River discharge from Magdalena, Orinoco and Amazon basin cause damage to the marine environment, through an excess of sediments or contamination from deforestation or pollution in distant regions.
		Alien species introduction caused ecological damage when marine creatures were carried in the ballast tanks of ships, and even dust particles from the Sahara Desert are implicated in spreading disease organisms to Caribbean reef species.

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7. Scenarios

CARSEA team, as contribution to the assessment of Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, has developed four scenarios to help policy-makers and stakeholders assess the likely consequences for the ecosystem and its services of different approaches to economic and environmental management (CARSEA, 2007). Scenarios of CARSEA are intended to give an overview and illustrate possible futures for the Caribbean region up to 2050. Plausible story lines of the future contain potential surprises and can help to map out potential prospects for services such as tourism, fishing, and recreation on the values and priorities expressed by people from outside and inside the Caribbean region. But it must be kept in mind, scenarios are not certain predictions of future but rather what the future could be. The scenarios were drawn up by a multi-disciplinary team of experts from South America, Central America, the Caribbean islands, the MA Global Scenarios Group, and the United Nations Environment Program’s Global Environmental Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean (UNEP GEO LAC) (CARSEA, 2007). Four scenarios which were developed by the CARSEA team:

1^st scenario: The Neo-plantation Economy scenario explores the consequences of the Caribbean economy continuing to be dominated by outside interests. This means that the demands for ecosystems services are increasing but are mostly enjoyed by people outside the region. There is little or no regional integration, co-operation or priority given to ecosystem management. Increasing tourism has positive effects in region, leading to the emerge of jobs, but carrying signs of downfall which happens around 2035, causing a decline of coastal ecosystems: coral reefs, mangrove swamps. The scenario also talks about increase in industry in the region, as well as oil production in Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago, mining places. The focus of this scenario is an emphasis on mass tourism. The expansion of tourism, bring more negative impacts, as for e.g. damage of coral reefs, changes in sand deposition patterns, construction of piers and docks, plummet of turtle population, reduction of local and endemic wildlife and introduction of invasive species. It mentions, even at 2050 degraded natures is not fully recovered after booming period of tourism in the region. Some fish stocks irrecoverable and impacts of climate change becoming visible, as for e.g. sea level rising, changes in water temperature (CARSEA, 2007).

2^nd scenario: Growing Asymmetries looks at a future in which there is also limited co-operation between the Caribbean states. The region reaps the outcomes of increasing liberalizations of the markets, especially the market of services, but do not take into account inequities and differences between nations, countries, social groups, and regions. The most important fact is that the USA stays dominant in the market of the region for the forthcoming 20-30 years. Exploitation of natural resources as forests, petroleum, minerals increases. The scenario shows bigger investments in countries with higher natural resources, biodiversity or water, so it reveals growing disparities in the Caribbean region. Moreover, the scenario clears out winners and losers by 2050. The focus point of the scenario is a free trade area covering all of the Americas (CARSEA, 2007).

3^rd scenario: Quality over Quantity models a future in which Caribbean countries give priority to the long-term sustainability of their economies, sustainable management of scare resources, although with an emphasis on competing in the global market-place. The main target of the region is to great niche market, this means that individual government have to explore potentials and uniqueness of the region and link tourism specialize in it. As well it means changes in traditional industries as agriculture or fisheries. Main goal of the region –uniqueness. So these sectors of industry should focus on it rather than on products which are common outside the region. This model is slow to start because it would require to reform systems of management, stimulate creation of “niche” markets. Until 2015 countries indentifying priorities of development, this means, the priorities on environment protection, development of economy or both in sustainable way. As well countries identify nature conservation goals, become more specialized in tourism or in other words, they find the best economical “niche” for development of the region. The good side of this scenario, although there is expansion of tourism, it is still ensured that in most countries in the region carrying capacity of local ecological and cultural recourses are not exceeded. However some parts of the region can suffer from environmental degradation, causing erosion, pollution and increased usage of fertilizers. This scenario also mentions about agricultural development occurs on previously cultivated lands and this don’t lead in reduction of forests. Reorganization in the fisheries gives positive effects and about 2030 fish stocks start to recover. Assuming everything, after 2050 the region specializes in sectors and maximizes returns to the local economies and societies. The focus in this scenario is a decision to move towards more specialized, “niche” tourism, and to shift away from North American / European market dominance (CARSEA, 2007).

4^th scenario: Scenario of  Diversify Together looks at a future in two perspectives. First of it, the Caribbean seeks to reduce its collective dependence on overseas interests and the second one, to increase regional levels of cooperation. Caribbean countries trade more with each other, exploiting the potential for trade in the Wider Caribbean region (including the Central American nations). The roots for this cooperation and the integration of the region are existing initiatives to form a Caribbean common market and by 2020 this regional community is in existence. Despite fish stocks keep declining till about 2025, introduced good practices of management in the region starts to give good results later and after 2025 slow recovery of fish stocks can be seen. Some countries in the region start eco-tourism and so preserve near-shore resources, while other still keep extracting them. The scenario also talks about aquaculture/mariculture expansion in the region. Poor farming in some countries can cause runoff and enrichment of nutrients, what would lead to algal blooms in coastal waters. Some arable land is lost due increased population in the region and housing development. But however, for conclusion it can be said the Caribbean area becomes an integrated region and functions at least until 2050 (CARSEA, 2007).

The scenarios reveal general information about the Caribbean region’s potential development in short, medium and long terms. There maybe little difference in terms of costs or benefits to population in short and medium time scales. The consequences of impacts on ecosystems only begin to diverge towards the middle part of this century causing emergent damage and neglect on ecosystems. A degraded environment of the Caribbean Sea would lose its appeal for many tourists, and fish stocks might start to collapse. It is at this point that alternative scenarios start to reap benefits, for example, where a more controlled approach to “niche” tourism (in the scenario Quality over Quantity) has produced a sustainable, higher-value industry less susceptible to sudden shocks or surprises (CARSEA, 2007).

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8. Links of CARSEA scenarios to MA Global Scenarios

Each scenario of CARSEA is plausible under each Global Scenarios, which were outlined by the MA team (MA, 2003). Both the Neo-plantation Economy and the Growing Asymmetries Scenarios seem most likely to proceed under conditions in which globalization processes continue; these scenarios would fall within the MA global-scale Global Orchestration and Order from Strength scenarios (CARSEA, 2007).

The Quality over Quantity and the Diversify Together Scenarios seem more suited by conditions in the global Techno-Garden and Adaptive Mosaic scenarios (CARSEA, 2007).

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9. Uncertainties with focal questions of CARSEA scenarios

Three uncertainties within main questions and tasks how to help the Caribbean region can be defined in the CARSEA scenarios. Some of these focal questions and solutions are partly presented in this assessment report of the Caribbean Sea. Despite this, some questions are still open and cannot be really precisely predicted or defined due to the fact that scenarios are not reflections of the future, but they are just outlines of possible futures. These main focal questions are:

1. What governance mechanisms for the Caribbean Sea can be used to reduce economic, social and environmental vulnerability of the region?
2. How can economic activity be organized and managed so that natural resource benefits are distributed equitably relative to the costs?
3. Will current trends in the decline of Caribbean Sea coastal and marine ecosystems exceed ecological thresholds that may result in significant consequences for human well-being?

Answer and solutions to therefore mentioned questions would help decision makers to come up with better and more efficient policies and decisions and thus they would support stakeholders and managers in the region in a more sustainable way.

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10. Major Findings in case study of CARSEA

There were four plausible scenarios made regarding major trends in the region. Only the Quality over Quantity Scenario benefits ecosystems, biodiversity, ecosystem services and societies. It addresses the environment through its explicit policies and institutions, concentrating on niche tourism and increasing cooperation in the region. In another case, high negative impacts on ecosystems are likely. The Quality over Quantity Scenario has produced a sustainable, high-value industry less susceptible to sudden shocks or surprises (CARSEA, 2007).

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11. Response to settled programs in the region

The United Nations general Assembly in 2006 passed resolutions (CARSEA, 2007), recognizing that it is important to look at the Caribbean region as one big ecosystem, because of its uniqueness, importance and vulnerability. The same resolution mentioned the sea as „special zone“ in the context of sustainable development.

As tourism is indirect product of ecosystem functions and the income is derived from it, it is important to keep tourism in the region but in the sustainable way. Moreover, tourism is vulnerable to the climate changes, so the Caribbean Community has set up the Climate Change Center (CARSEA, 2007) which helps to set climate models to predict damage and destructivity caused by increased sea-level rise and destructive force of hurricane. CARSEA report mentions some responses to sustain marine fishes. Only the ocean pelagic stocks are currently served by international governance mechanism. Caribbean participates in the International Commission for Conservation of Atlantic Tuna (ICCAT) but its participation is weak.

There were many programs, policies, project regarding economical, environmental issues settles in the region by wish to solve initial conflicts and to help for this unique ecosystem. However, the team of CARSEA has found little evidence of action by local or national government, local authorities and other organizations in the region to implement the integrated management of the Sea in the term of „special zone“. And the main reasons of the lack of integrated management are:

• Disconnected programs / lack of cooperation, coherence in vision and policies;
• Ineffective legislation, lack of harmony among legal instruments;
• Poor commitment;
• Gaps in responses to the driving forces;
• Duplication in decisions and efforts (Chakalall et al., 2007).

Decisions affecting the Caribbean Sea ecosystem are made by a complex set of institutions with overlapping responsibilities, ranging from national and colonial authorities to international treaty bodies, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the private sector. This is partly because there is little routine in monitoring and evaluation of policies and programs linked to ecosystem management and, therefore, no existing body of research on which such an analysis might be based on (CARSEA, 2007).

Shortly it can be said, that there are many overlapping policies and programs. The 6th figure illustrates overlapping regulations and programs for the fisheries in the region.

Figure 6. List of overlapping nested fisheries related organizations and policies in the Caribbean Sea. (WECAFC = FAO West Central Atlantic Fishery Commission, ACS = Association of Caribbean States, CARICOM = Caribbean Community and Common Market, OECS = Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States, LAC = Lesser Antilles Committee, OLDEPESCA = Latin American Organization for Fishery Development, OSPESCA = Organización del Sector Pesquero y Acuícola del Istmo Centroamericano, ICCAT = International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas). Source: Chakalall B. et al., ELSEVIER, 2007.

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12. Proposals

CARSEA came up with the proposal to establish a Caribbean Sea Technical Commission or council, which would be responsible for the entire region. Main reason for the establishment of this Commission is to achieve coherence within the policy-making bodies of the Wider Caribbean by addressing the generic needs. It would be responsible for catching the big picture of what is happening to the ecosystem, and for guiding users of the Caribbean Sea resources and the policy-makers of the region in the discharge of their responsibilities (CARSEA, 2007).

Such commission would have the following functions:

• Monitor and assess the condition of the Caribbean Sea;
• Provide analysis;
• Initiate studies;
• Help set up processes for resolving conflicts arising from the use of resources in the Caribbean Sea;
• Assess the policy and legal frameworks;
• Feedback the outcomes (CARSEA, 2007).

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References

1. Agard, J., Cropper, A., Garcia, K., eds., 2007, Caribbean Sea Ecosystem Assessment (CARSEA). A sub-global component of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), Caribbean Marine Studies, Special Edition.
2. Berkes, F., Folke, C., eds., 1998, Linking social and ecological systems: management practices and social mechanisms for building resilience, Cambridge University Press.
3. Berkes, F., Colding, J., and Folke, C., 2003, Navigating social-ecological systems: building resilience for complexity and change, Cambridge University Press.
4. Burke, L., and Maidens, J., 2004, Reefs at risk in the Caribbean, World Resources Institute, Washington .81 p. Corvalán, C., Hales, S., Mc Michael, A., 2005, Ecosystem and Human Well–Being Health Synthesis, World Health Organization.
5. Gardner, T. A., Côté, I. M., Gill, J. A., Grant, A., Watkinson, A. R., 2003, Long-Term Region-Wide Declines in Caribbean Corals, Science Express. 301: 958-960.
6. Wilkie, M.L., Fortuna, S., and Souksavat, O., 2002, FAO’s database on mangrove area estimates, Forest Resources Division. FAO, Rome (unpublished).
7. Wilkie, M.L and Fortuna, S., 2003, Status and trends in the mangrove extent worldwide, Forest Resources Division. FAO, Rome (unpublished).

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Useful links

• Caribbean Sea Ecosystem Assessment Team, Agard, J.B, and Cropper, A. (coord.), 2007: http://www.thecropperfoundation.org/docs/carsea/CARSEA%20Report.pdf 
• Chakalall, B., Mahon, R., McConney, P., Nurse, L. and Oderson, D., 2007, Governance of fisheries and other living marine resources in the Wider Caribbean. ELSEVIER: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=MImg&_imagekey=B6T6N-4P2YWGJ-3-5&_cdi=5035&_user=2387607&_pii=S0165783607001476&_orig=search&_coverDate=10/31/2007&_sk=999129998&view=c&wchp=dGLzVtb-zSkzS&md5=44814c7b9061036a81a7e15f7cd9763d&ie=/sdarticle.pdf 
• Lovell, T., 2008, Regionalism versus national sovereignty: the Promise and Problems of a Caricom Fisheries Agreement. Division for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea, United Nations, New York: http://www.un.org/Depts/los/nippon/unnff_programme_home/fellows_pages/fellows_papers/lovell_0708_antigua-barbuda.pdf 
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Policy Responses, Chapter 15: Integrated Response, http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.320.aspx.pdf .
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Scenarios, Chapter 6: Methodology for Developing the MA Scenarios, http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.330.aspx.pdf .
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Scenarios, Chapter 8: Four Scenarios, http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.332.aspx.pdf .
• Oxford economic forecasting: Scenarios for the Caribbean Sea, http://www.thecropperfoundation.org/OEF%20Carsea%20Scenarios.pdf 
• Reefbase: A Global Information System for Coral Reefs http://reefgis.reefbase.org/ 
• Sea around Us Project (SAUP) of the University of British Columbia (UBC) http://www.seaaroundus.org/ 

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